我们听说他影响力下降 We heard that he'd been sinking,
当我们听到他过世的消息 and then we heard that he died,
我丈夫说 "你会被采访" and my husband said, "You will have to contact."
我面对全世界的电话 And I was on the phone to the world.
人们问 你告诉美国总统了么? And people were saying, had I told the American President?
你告诉撒切尔夫人了么? Had I told Mrs Thatcher?
直到这时 我才最终确信 It was only then, I think, that finally it was rammed home to me
他对世界产生的巨大影响 the enormous effect that he'd had on the whole world.
你知道 电话是午夜拨通的 You know, ringing, in the middle of the night,
告诉美国总统哈耶克已经过世 ringing the President of the United States to say that FA Hayek had died.
弗里德里希·哈耶克是市场主义的王者 Friedrich Hayek was a champion of the market.
他启发了许多构建当今世界的人物 He inspired many of the people who built the world we live in today.
撒切尔夫人一直以来 Margaret Thatcher would, from time to time,
会在她的手提包里面装写有引言的小纸片 pull little bits of paper with quotations out of her handbag,
而哈耶克正好是被引用之一 and Hayek would be one of them.
不止一代 For more than a generation,
西方领袖宣称 他们拥护这个基本经济思想... Western leaders claimed to embrace one central economic idea...
自由市场 the free market.
在金融危机下 正统学说正在遭受打击 With the financial crisis, that orthodoxy's under attack.
我们对其的信仰正在遭受前所未有的打击 Our faith in it has been shaken like never before.
但是 一幅宏伟的自由市场的愿景 But one great free-market visionary
正从废墟中显现 其背景正是伴随着哈耶克名声之鹊起 has emerged from the meltdown with his reputation enhanced.
此时或许是倾听哈耶克的最佳时刻 There might never be a better time to listen to Friedrich Hayek.
我认为 此刻 I see right now, this moment in history,
是哈耶克的思想值得关注的历史时刻 as a time where Hayek's ideas deserve a shot.
所有亲市场派的大思想家中 哈耶克是最激进的 Of all the big pro-market thinkers, Hayek was by far the most radical.
他认为市场应该比 He believed the market should be freer than any government
任何政府敢于许诺的更自由 has ever dared to allow it to be.
哈耶克的世界里 In the world according to Hayek,
政治家应该克制自己 politicians should step back
不要试图对资本主义的波动进行管制 from trying to manage capitalism's ups and downs.
他们只需要简单的让市场自由运行 They should simply set it free.
他是一个无可争议的重要思想家 There's no doubt that he's a significant thinker,
尽管在他每个思想领域都有重要的反对者 though there's major controversy about every area of his thought.
这个系列中 我将展示3个大思想家 In this series, I'll reveal the stories of the lives
的生平及其革命性的思想 and revolutionary thinking of three extraordinary men.
梅纳德·凯恩斯 卡尔·马克思 弗雷德里希·哈耶克 John Maynard Keynes, Karl Marx and Friedrich Hayek.
他们都看到了世界正在经历巨大变化 They all saw their worlds changing as never before,
变得前所未有的复杂和相互关联 becoming ever more complex and interconnected.
整个国家的命运依赖于货币的魔力 The fate of entire nations now hung on the power of money,
他们对于应该做什么有着完全不同的见解 and they had very different ideas about what to do.
即便在经济衰退期 Even in the middle of an economic meltdown,
哈耶克对政府的建议仍然是不作为 Hayek's advice to governments was to step back and do nothing.
干预将只会导致事情更坏 Meddling would only make things worse.
任何人都不想听到这个 It's not what anyone has ever wanted to hear,
如今 为了稳定经济 他们仍在玩之前的把戏 but today they've tried all the usual tricks for fixing the economy.
此时此刻我们是否应最终接受哈耶克的建议呢? Is it time, finally, to take Hayek's advice instead?
货币大师-哈耶克 =========纪录片之家倾情奉献========= 本字幕仅供学习交流 严禁用于商业用途 翻译:HELLO 校对:小开心
在世界各处 我们都能感受 Around the world we're all still feeling the shockwaves
2008年金融危机带来的冲击 of the financial crash of 2008.
你能真切地感受到这儿的恐惧 'You really can feel the fear down here.'
仅用5天 道琼斯指数创下5年来新低 'The Dow has had its worst five days in five years.'
金融危机前 Until that crisis hit,
西方领导都曾坚信自由市场 Western leaders had put their faith in the free market
是产生财富的最佳制度 as the best way to generate wealth.
但是他们关于市场的观点 But in their version of the market,
主要源于米尔顿·弗里德曼等人 derived from thinkers like Milton Friedman,
他们认为如果事态恶化 政府应该介入 they still believed if things went wrong they could step in,
把事情拉回正轨 tweak the system and get everything back on track.
如今 哈耶克的粉丝 Today, fans of the Austrian economist Friedrich Hayek
认为那样做扭曲了市场经济 say that arrogance, that distorted picture of a market economy,
导致我们陷入如今的混乱 got us into this mess.
如果想摆脱现状 我们必须弄清原委 If we want to try to get out of it,we need to try the real thing.
要理解是政府 而非市场 To understand how governments, not markets,
导致了危机 might have caused the crisis,
我们得把时钟拨回埋下危机种子的年份 we need to wind the clock back to the years leading up to it.
美国利率下调 America's interest rates have been cut.
下调本身是符合公众预期的 但时间却出人意料 That was expected but the timing has come as a surprise.
2001年1月 It's January 2001,
美国央行 即美联储 and America's central bank, the Federal Reserve,
调低利率 has cut interest rates
因其担心美国经济下行 because it's worried the US economy is slowing down.
央行依据其惯用的理由调低利率 It cut interest rates for the same reason central banks always do.
为了使企业和家庭能以更低的成本获得贷款 To make it cheaper for companies and households to borrow
从而找到可获利的投资机会 and seek out profitable investments.
你能想象 总统会很高兴 The President was pleased, as you might imagine.
这正是总统希望央行干的事情 This is the kind of thing Presidents expect central banks to do
避免经济陷入困境 to avoid economic trouble.
我认为利率下调是必须的 I think the cut was, um... was needed.
局势很严峻 必须采取措施 It was a strong statement that measures must be taken
以确保经济不至于陷入混乱 to make sure our economy does not go into a tailspin.
如果哈耶克在世 Had Friedrich Hayek been alive,
他会持截然不同的观点 he would have taken a very different view.
结果不是避免了问题 Far from avoiding trouble,
哈耶克肯定会发现 美联储 Hayek would have seen the Federal Reserve's decision
调低利率的决定 to cut interest rates
埋下了如今金融危机的种子 as sowing the seeds of today's financial crisis.
事实上 哈耶克相信 In fact, Hayek believed
任何政府干预市场行为 almost any government intervention in the market,
如扶持倒闭企业 like propping up failing businesses,
设置贸易壁垒 操纵利率 setting trade tariffs or manipulating interest rates,
将带来灾难性后果 risked disaster.
2001年以后 In the years after 2001,
美联储继续调低利率 the Federal Reserve carried on cutting interest rates,
帮助不动产市场保持繁荣 但繁荣最终不可能持续 helping to fuel a property boom that ultimately couldn't be sustained.
2007年早期 美国房产市场泡沫破裂 Early in 2007, America's housing bubble burst
全球金融危机爆发 and the global financial crisis began,
完全吻合哈耶克的预测 just as Hayek might have predicted.
传统智囊团啥都没有预判到 The conventional wisdom was none of these events were foreseeable.
我们本不该做任何事 We couldn't have done anything about it.
显然 所做的都错了 But of course all of that was false.
展现在我们眼前的 What's playing out before our eyes
正如哈耶克等人所预测的 is exactly what men like Hayek had predicted would happen.
乍一看 哈耶克关于危机的观点 At first glance, the Hayek view of the crisis
看上去有点熟悉 looks a bit familiar.
但是别被耍了 But don't be fooled.
你可能觉得你以前听过同样的论点 You probably feel like you've heard this argument before,
危机部分归因于美联储 that the Federal Reserve partly caused the crisis
通过把利率设定在低水平 by setting interest rates too low,
鼓励人们过度借款并做蠢事 encouraging everyone to borrow too much and generally do silly things.
但是哈耶克和其追随者的论点 But the argument of Hayek and his followers
实际上比这更深刻 actually runs deeper than that.
他们不仅仅把注入经济中的货币总量弄错了 It's not just that they got their sums wrong
以及没有设定合理的利率 and they didn't set the right interest rate.
更重要的是 他们压根就不应该 It's that they shouldn't have been in the business
介入利率设定这档子事 of setting interest rates at all.
这是对国家职能的强烈抗议 It's this radical rejection of the state's role
国家调控市场的职能 in regulating the market
哈耶克和其他自由市场思想家的区别就在于此 that sets Hayek apart from other free-market thinkers.
他相信市场的自我调节机制比通常所认为的更好 He believed the market would do a far better job regulating itself,
如果政府不予干涉的话 if only governments would just leave it alone.
自由市场不会把利率设定在格林斯潘的1% Free market did not set interest rates at 1% under Greenspan.
是政府将其设定在那个水平 这是价格操纵 That's the government that is doing that. That is price-fixing.
类似前苏联 It's kind of the way the old Soviet Union
操纵面包和天然气的价格 used to fix the price of bread or gasoline.
美国政府用同样的方法操纵利率 The US government fixes interest rates the same way.
我们需要市场而非政府设定利率 We need the market to set interest rates, not the government.
如果市场决定利率 那么利率水平将会更高 If the market set interest rates they would've been much higher,
也就不会有现在这些麻烦了 and we wouldn't have had these problems.
哈耶克对完全自由市场优势的信任 Hayek's belief in the positive power of the unbridled free market
源于其童年在奥地利的经历 stems from his childhood in Austria.
他1899年生于维也纳 He was born in Vienna in 1899.
当时维也纳聚集了很多天才 Then, the city was packed full of intellectuals
如弗洛伊德和维特根斯坦 哈耶克认识其中很多人 like Freud and Wittgenstein, many of whom Hayek came to know.
这些家庭照片并不常见 These family photographs have not been widely seen.
他成长的过程伴随着现代世界的形成 Growing up, he had a keen desire to make sense
对于这个世界 哈耶克充满了学习的渴望 of the modern world taking shape around him.
大概13或14岁的时候 I must have been 13 or 14
我开始纠缠认识的所有神父 when I began pestering all the priests I knew
让他们给我解释所谓的上帝 to explain to me what they meant by the word "God",
但他们都不能很好的解释 and none of them could.
于是我不再纠结这事 That was the end for me of it.
哈耶克成长于一个科学家家庭 Hayek grew up in a family of scientists.
像维也纳当时的许多其他天才 Like many other intellectuals in Vienna at that time
他们乐于自认为正在承担 they liked to think they were on a grand quest
揭开宇宙奥秘的伟大使命 to unwrap the secrets of the universe.
年轻的哈耶克深受其父亲的影响 The young Hayek was especially influenced by his father...
一个医生 同时也是一个狂热的植物学家 a doctor and enthusiastic botanist.
一开始 哈耶克像父亲一样 Hayek started off like his dad,
狂热的收集植物和昆虫样本 obsessively collecting plant and insect samples,
按物种的发展分类 really into the development of species.
16岁的时候 他的兴趣转向人类 By the time he was 16 and he was more interested in people,
整个社会的发展 而不再是植物 the development of whole societies, not plants.
但达尔文的进化论已经深入他的脑海 But Darwin's theory of evolution stuck in his head.
18世纪启蒙运动以来 Since the 18th-century Enlightenment
科学揭开了许多宇宙的谜团 science had unlocked many of the puzzles of the universe,
包括生命的起源 including the origins of life itself.
随着哈耶克的成长 As Hayek grew up
他视一门学科为新的前沿 并对此投入巨大热情 he was drawn to what he saw as the last frontier...
经济的神奇运行方式 the mysterious workings of the economy
及其日益增长的复杂性和魔力 in all its growing complexity and power.
在达尔文的进化论中 In Darwin's theory of evolution
他认为他看到了新经济学的基本模式 he thought he saw what a new science of the economy might look like.
物理学通常可以精确预测 Physics, which allows, often, for precise predictions
行星的运动或轨迹 in terms of planetary motion and eclipses,
但这对于理解社会如何运转来说 is not a good model
不是一个好的模式 for understanding how social phenomena work.
我认为这是进化论对他产生吸引的基础 I think that was the basis of his attraction to evolutionary theory.
哈耶克想要主张的是 经济学可以成为一门科学 He wanted to establish that you could be a science
就算它不能做出精确预测 even if you don't make precise predictions,
或者也没有他众多反对者所提到的控制力 or have the sort of control that many of his opponents said,
反对者声称的是 "如果经济学是一门科学 "Well, if we're a science we should be able to engineer society
那么我们就能像工程师建造桥梁那般来规划社会" "the way an engineer builds a bridge."
达尔文的进化论也帮助哈耶克 Darwin's theory of evolution also helped forge Hayek's vision
形成了他对资本主义本身的构想 of capitalism itself.
他认为 全球市场已深刻介入人类的发展史 He came to believe the global market had evolved
它已成为一种神奇的自然力量 over the course of human history, emerging as a kind of natural wonder
驱动文明向前发展 driving civilisation forward.
哈耶克将市场视为通讯系统 Hayek saw the market as a telecommunications system,
处理亿万信息 processing billions of pieces of information
包括我们所有的需求和欲望 about all our needs and desires
以及随之不断变化的供给和资源 and the changing supply of resources to meet them.
哈耶克说它是一个奇迹 - 全凭价格的升降为讯息 Hayek said it was a marvel - the way all this is conveyed to us
指引我们的商业行为 by prices that guide our actions as they rise and fall.
对哈耶克来说 市场越自由 其运转就越佳 And to Hayek the market does most good when it's most free.
通常是因为我们意图控制市场才导致了市场与我们的期望相反 It's our desire to control it that most often turns it against us.
哈耶克认为政府干预给出了错误的信号 Hayek thought meddling by government could make it harder for
使得市场难以正常工作 the market to do its job by distorting the signals
因为这个错误信号同时影响了买方和卖方 it was sending to buyers and sellers,
政府管控货币供应量 and the meddling involved in the government's control
对市场的产生的干预 of the supply of money, Hayek decided,
哈耶克认为是最危险的 could be most damaging of all.
通胀肆虐 失业增加 债务失控 Rampant inflation, unemployment, uncontrollable debt.
哈耶克亲眼目睹了一战后维也纳 In Vienna, after the First World War, Hayek saw for himself
政府滥用货币是怎样造成严重破坏的 how government abuse of money can wreak havoc.
整个奥地利物价飞涨 失业剧增 Across Austria prices had taken off, and so had unemployment.
连富人都要为生计发愁 Even the rich were struggling to feed themselves,
没有人确切知道这是为什么 and no-one could quite understand why.
在危机最盛行的时期 你走在大街上 At the height of the crisis, if you walked down this street
无论白天还是夜晚 any time of day or night,
你都能听到大量的 持续的 阴沉的声音 you could hear a kind of relentless, heavy, rumbling sound.
这是货币将一个国家撕裂的声音 It was the sound of money tearing a country apart.
这栋建筑曾经是奥匈帝国银行的办公场所 This building housed the Austro-Hungarian Bank,
这里的打印机日夜不停的工作 and its printing presses that were rolling night and day
批量印制新的钞票 churning out millions of new bank notes.
战争留给奥地利政府的是巨额债务 The war had left the Austrian government with huge bills
以及低水平的税收收入 and low tax revenues.
所以政府命令国家银行印制其所需钞票 So it ordered the national bank to simply print the money it needed
用于偿还债券和欠条 in exchange for bonds or IOUs.
操控这些印钞机的人 What the people manning these printing presses,
以及他们的政治老板此时还不知道 and their political masters, had yet to really grasp
他们不仅仅是在印制钞票 was they weren't just producing money here,
他们同时也在制造通胀 they were producing inflation.
经济中的货币总量上升 The amount of money in the economy was going up,
人们有更多的钱可支配 so people had more money to spend, but of course,
但是他们所能购买的商品却保持在原来的水平 the amount of things they could buy had stayed more or less the same.
因而推高每样商品的价格 产生通胀 That forced up the price of everything. Inflation took off.
事实上 奥地利的情况如此糟糕 In fact, the situation got so bad in Austria,
通胀率甚至高达10,000% the inflation rate hit 10,000%.
金融财富都被摧毁了 The financial wealth was destroyed.
那些原来有职业的人 Those that had jobs
继续从事工作但仍然负担不起支出 continued to have them but they could no longer afford,
例如 女仆和服务员 for instance, to have maids and servants.
我们看到这些人 突然间都失业了 We saw all of these people, all of a sudden, ended up being out of work.
奥地利经济崩溃 而他们的央行行长 With their economy going up in smoke, Austria's central bankers
还在试图饮鸩止渴 tried to fight fire with fire.
1922年夏天 物价每月翻番 By the summer of 1922, prices were doubling every month,
央行也在用同样的速度 and the central bank was playing catch up,
印制越来越大额的钞票 printing higher and higher denomination bank notes,
可想而知商店会发生什么了 just to reflect what was going on in the shops.
最后 50万克朗仅仅购买一条面包 In the end, this 500,000 Krone note could maybe buy you a loaf of bread.
当然 向经济注入越来越多的货币 And of course, by pumping more and more money into the economy
只是使事态更加恶化 they were only making the problem worse.
对奥地利政府来说 这是一个由他们一手造成的危机 For Austria's politicians it was all a crisis of their own making.
一战刚开始 他们就通过加印货币 They'd been printing money to pay their bills since the start
偿还债务 of the First World War,
他们不理解这样做会导致通胀 and they didn't understand that that could lead to inflation.
这是一场由无知引发的危机 It was a crisis caused by ignorance.
亲眼目睹奥地利瘫痪 Having seen Austria brought to its knees,
哈耶克终其一生都对通胀有着本能的恐惧 Hayek had an almost visceral fear of inflation all of his life.
通胀仍令当今所有央行恐惧 It's a fear that central bankers still share today.
我感兴趣的是 从这段经历里他获得了什么 What's interesting to me is the lesson he drew from that experience.
绝大多数人关注政治层面的事实 Most people focus on the politics, on the fact that the winners of
一战的战胜国要求奥地利高额赔款 World War I had imposed impossibly high reparations on Austria.
但是哈耶克更感兴趣经济层面 But Hayek was interested in the economics,
以及奥地利政府所不理解的 and the fact that the Austrian government simply hadn't understood
货币的威力 the power of money.
而其后发生在美国的事件则让哈耶克得出结论 What happened next in America led Hayek to conclude
还有比政府无知更坏的事情 - 傲慢 there can be something worse than government ignorance - hubris.
他认为 纵观整个经济危机就能发现 He thought that entire period showed the calamity that can come
灾难源自于政府试图用货币的威力来调控经济 when governments try to use the power of money to shape the economy.
20世纪20年代的美国 In America in the 1920's
正步入有史以来最繁荣的时期 the greatest boom the world had ever seen was taking off.
消费者无法买到足够的新产品 如汽车 Consumers couldn't get enough of new products like cars,
电话 唱片机 telephones and record players.
股市越攀越高 The stock market rose higher and higher.
随着喧嚣的20年代逐渐逝去 美国最精英的经济思想 As the Roaring Twenties wore on, the finest economic minds in America
开始相信繁荣不会结束 came to believe the boom would never end.
回到奥地利 1929年初 Back in Austria, in early 1929, Hayek was convinced
哈耶克认为政府把一起搞砸了 they'd got it all wrong.
他成为了新成立的 He'd become the director of the recently founded
商业危机研究中心的董事 Institute for Business Cycle Research.
工作职责是研究为什么经济总是 Its job was to understand why economies were always
不断从繁荣到衰退交替更迭 循环往复 lurching from one boom and bust cycle to another.
哈耶克称之为"19世纪模式" Hayek called it "The 19th Century Pattern",
尽管这一现象从未成为过去式 though it was hardly a thing of the past.
研究中心设在商会 The Institute was based here at the Chamber of Commerce,
在这里 哈耶克发展了关于繁荣和衰退的一个新理论 where Hayek had been developing a new theory of boom and bust,
以及关于市场的新观点 along with new thinking about the market.
他在这里的工作将永久的改变人们 The work he did here would change the way people thought
关于经济的思考方式 - 繁荣然后衰退 about the economy forever - its ups, and its downs.
对许多人来说 衰退是无法预测的 To many, the downs were unpredictable...
是一种无法预警 就能摧毁经济的自然力量 a kind of force of nature that might destroy an economy without warning.
哈耶克发展了一个新理论 - 衰退的种子 Hayek had been working on a new idea - that the seeds of busts
早在繁荣的时候已经埋下 were sown during booms.
因为世界已经越来越相互关联 Because the world had become increasingly interconnected,
哈耶克开始研究美国的繁荣 Hayek had been studying the American boom to help him
以助于他预测奥地利经济的潜在走向 forecast what would happen to the Austrian economy.
他开始制作关于欧洲经济状况的 He had to produce these monthly reports on the state
月度报告 of the European economy.
大部分都是一些无趣的东西 Most of it is pretty dry stuff.
例如纸张产量或月度钢铁出口额 It's things like paper production or that month's steel exports.
但是他被公认 But he is credited with making a rather striking prediction
在1929年初做出了一个惊人的预测 in early 1929,
因为他认为美国股市的繁荣 because he thought the American stock market boom
将在短短几个月内结束 would end in a few months time.
他是对的 He was right.
1929年10月 华尔街股市跳水 In October 1929 Wall Street fell off a cliff,
20年代的喧画上了一个痛苦的句号 and the '20s roared to an anguished end.
哈耶克的预测源于 Hayek's prediction came out of what he saw happening
他对美国新央行所做所为的观察 at America's new central bank.
美联储1913年成立 The Federal Reserve had been set up in 1913
目的是为了稳定美国那些臭名昭著的私人银行 to stabilise America's notoriously shaky private banks
通过为其提供了可靠的信贷资金来源 by offering them a reliable source of credit.
哈耶克的洞见是 经济的大起大落 Hayek's big idea was that the great ups and downs in the economy
几乎都是从设立这类机构开始 nearly all started in buildings like this one.
利率作为贷款的成本 It was the cost of borrowing, the interest rate,
被美联储这类的央行设定 set by central banks like the New York Federal Reserve
导致了不可持续的繁荣 that caused unsustainable booms to develop,
同时也不可避免会引发衰退 and cause the inevitable busts.
1920年代 美联储的管理层 In the 1920s the governor of the New York Federal Reserve
有一个革命性的的观点 had a revolutionary idea.
本杰明·斯特朗认为他可以用央行的权力 Benjamin Strong thought he could use the bank's power
设定利率 影响经济中将要发生的事项 to set interest rates to influence what was happening in the economy.
在许多方面 利用利率的观点 In many ways, that idea of using interest rates
标志着现代货币政策的起源 marked the start of modern monetary policy.
斯特朗开始在公开市场上购买国债 Strong began buying government debt on the open market
这样做的效果是增加经济中的货币总量 which did have the effect of raising the amount of money in the economy.
但是与倒霉的奥地利央行不同 斯特朗有一个策略 But unlike Austria's hapless central bankers, Strong had a strategy.
两者不同之处在于 美联储不是通过购买 The difference with Austria was that the Fed wasn't buying
国债帮美国政府还债 treasury bonds to help the government pay its bills.
而只是为了增加市场中的货币总量 It was doing it to get money into the market
同时保持较低的利率水平 and keep interest rates low.
央行希望鼓励每个人 The central bank wanted to encourage everyone,
个体或家庭从银行贷更多的款 individuals and households, to borrow more from the banks.
目的达到了 It worked.
钢铁行业增长 公共服务行业增长 汽车行业增长 'Steel up, utilities up, motors up,
无线电行业增长 所有行业都在增长 增长 'radio way up - everything up, up, up!'
斯特朗的干预确实为 Strong's intervention really paved the way
我们今天的金融系统铺平了道路 for the financial system we have today.
感谢他发明的各种信用产品 Thanks to all that credit he created
股市越来越高 the stock market rose higher and higher.
贷款如此便宜 以至于许多人贷款购买股票 With loans so cheap, many borrowed money to buy shares.
其他人则大量投资不动产 Others invested heavily in property.
美联储希望其干预能保持 The Federal Reserve hoped its intervention would keep
经济无限期的持续繁荣 但是哈耶克认为斯特朗的政策 the boom going indefinitely, but Hayek believed Strong's policy
埋下了最终衰退的种子 was sowing the seeds of an eventual bust.
哈耶克看到的是 贷款的低成本 The way Hayek saw it, the low cost of borrowing
发送了错误的信号给投资者 was sending the wrong signal to investors here
给全国的企业 and to businesses around the country.
低利率告诉他们美国存款越来越多 The low interest rate told them that America was saving more,
银行账户里有很多闲置资金 that there was lots of spare cash sitting in bank accounts
可用于放贷或投资 ready to be lent on and invested.
但这不是事实 It wasn't true.
别小看美国 为什么 伙计 我们几乎还没开始 'Don't sell America short. Why, man, we've scarcely started.'
美联储发现预警的信号时 By the time the Federal Reserve spotted the warning signs
为时已晚 it was too late.
技术上的重新调整 超过140亿美元随之蒸发 'Technical readjustments. Over 14 billion go with them
整个国家的信心也随之蒸发 华尔街 'and so goes the confidence of a nation. Wall Street...'
当利率上升时 大崩溃来了 The crash came when interest rates rose
投资者开始意识到银行也没有钱 and investors started to realise the banks didn't have money
返还所有投资者 to back all those investments after all.
在某个时点 他们甚至不得不关闭展厅 At one point they had to close the visitors' gallery
因为有太多的民众来这里 cos there were too many members of the public up here
看到他们毕生储蓄化为乌有后嚎啕大哭 wailing and crying as they watched their life savings go up in smoke.
爵士乐时代已经结束了 所有都结束了 'The Jazz Age is over, all over.'
对哈耶克来时 教训是显而易见的 To Hayek the lesson was clear...
美联储通过低贷款成本刺激繁荣 by feeding the boom with cheap credit the Federal Reserve
成为了华尔街崩盘和大衰退的帮凶 had helped cause the Wall Street Crash and the Great Depression.
迅速切换到今天的全球经济危机 Fast forward to today's global crisis
你可以讲同样一个故事 and you could tell a similar story.
我们当然注意到了英国和美国许多的低息贷款 We certainly saw a lot of cheap credit in Britain and America
在崩溃之前的10年内 in the decade before the crash,
推动不可持续的房地产市场繁荣 which did help fuel unsustainable property booms.
诺森罗克是所有金融机构中 Northern Rock was one of many financial institutions
为其贷款承担了更大的风险的一个 taking ever greater risks in its lending.
当其2007年陷入困境时 恐慌的储户蜂拥而至 When it got into trouble in 2007, panicked savers rushed
要求取款 - 英国1866年以来的首次挤兑 to withdraw their cash - the first run on a British bank since 1866.
这是灾难来临的信号 It was a sign of the disaster to come.
如果事情没有在2007 2008年崩盘 If things hadn't come to a crash in 2007, 2008
也许通过正确的方法 你知道的 利率和货币政策 maybe with the corrective medicine you could have managed the situation
还能掌控局面 使其重回正轨 back down again through, you know, interest rate monetary policy.
银行系统大规模的暴露在风险下 As it was the banking system which was massively exposed to this
以至于人们突然意识到 and reached a situation where suddenly, people realised
发生了什么 他们彼此都失去了信任 what had happened, they lost confidence in each other,
整个大厦倾倒 and the entire edifice came crashing down.
今天 关于经济 央行提供的各种电脑模型 Today's central banks have computer models of the economy
比本杰明·斯特朗所能想象到的 不知还要先进多少倍 light years ahead of anything dreamt up by Benjamin Strong.
尽管如此 哈耶克的追随者指责美联储 But even so, Hayek's followers say the Federal Reserve
没有从上世纪20年代的错误中吸取任何教训 had learned nothing from the mistakes it made in the 1920s.
本世纪初 美联储在很长一段时期内保持了过低的利率 In the early 2000s it had kept interest rates too low for too long.
但是无论是彼时还是此时 都有很多反对声 But then and now there are plenty who would disagree.
美联储主席的职责是为了使酒会继续 The job of the Fed chairman is to keep the party going,
不计成本的往酒杯里加酒 而不是拿开酒杯 to spike the punch bowl at all costs.
但拿开酒杯才是他真正的职责 Not to take the punch bowl away, which really should be the job.
我的意思是 美联储应该独立 但实际上它不是 I mean, the Federal Reserve should be independent, but it's not.
它的行为始终是在为政府背书 It acts in concert with the government to try to maintain
以维持虚假的繁荣 a phony prosperity.
利率非常低 一定程度上 Interest rates are very low, and that was partly promoted
贸易顺差的国家 特别是中国 by the fact that the surplus countries, notably China,
也包括其他国家 促成了这一事实 but others as well,
他们持有大量的货币 他们乐于出口 had a lot of money, they were perfectly happy with exporting.
在这一大背景下 美国很难调高利率 It would have been hard to force American interest rates higher
因为有如此多的货币 in that environment because there was so much money
在低利率下流入 flowing in at low interest rates.
如果这都是美联储的错误 那欧洲为何 If it was all the Feds' fault how come Europe had
也有几乎同样的经历? the exact same experience?
虽然我不能确定 但要说 It's not the fact of the interest rate policy maybe having been wrong,
利率政策错了 这不对 although I'm not even sure I agree on that,
事实是 西方广泛地解除对金融市场的管制 but it's the fact that we had these deregulated Wild West
使我们深陷危机的泥沼 financial markets that allowed us to get into the crisis we're in.
如同我们这次的金融危机 Like our own financial collapse,
全世界都感受到了1929年危机的后果 the consequences of the 1929 crash were felt across the world.
一连串的银行危机接踵而至 A string of banking crises followed,
美国和大部分欧洲国家发生恐怖的大衰退 and a terrible depression in America and much of Europe.
哈耶克坚持说这都是 Again, Hayek said it was all down
由于在繁荣年代利率太低所导致的 to interest rates being too low in the boom years.
但多年后 另一个有巨大影响力的自由市场思想家 But years later, another hugely influential free market thinker
米尔顿·弗里德曼持完全相反的观点 came along who argued the exact opposite - Milton Friedman.
他认为美联储 He said the Federal Reserve
没有为经济系统注入足够多的货币 had not pumped too much money into the system, but too little.
至今 大部分政治家和经济学家 That's the version of history that most politicians
还相信这一历史理论 and economists still believe.
哈耶克完全错了 Hayek was absolutely wrong to think that in the catastrophic depths
他认为上世纪30年代世界经济陷入危机深渊 of the Great Depression of the 1930s that all that was happening
是一次清理 was an unwinding of the malinvestments
以纠正之前因于鼓励贷款而导致的不当投资 that had come from a credit boom.
显然 银行业经历的灾难式崩溃 Clearly, there had been a calamitous collapse of the banking sector
也和之前所谓的不当投资行为没有任何关系 that had nothing to do with the earlier so-called malinvestment.
面对世界上最糟糕的金融危机 经济学家的问题 Facing the world's worst financial meltdown, the issue for economists
和政治家的问题是一致的 and politicians was the same as it is today...
我们如何才能赶走衰退? how do we make it go away?
大衰退开始后 哈耶克被邀请 As the Great Depression began, Hayek was invited to give
在伦敦经济学院举办一系列的演讲 a series of lectures here at the London School of Economics.
哈耶克很激动 他一生都希望来这里 Hayek was thrilled. He'd wanted to come here all his life.
但是邀请函后附了一个不算隐秘的行程表 But there was a not very hidden agenda attached to the invitation.
伦敦经济学院希望借助哈耶克发起反击 LSE wanted him as part of their fight back
因为他当时正与其最主要竞争对手剑桥竞争 against a new, very different strand of economic thinking
后者发展出一套全新的 非常特别的经济理论 from their arch rivals Cambridge
在当时备受关注 that had been getting a lot of attention.
提出这套思想的正是凯恩斯 The man driving that new approach was John Maynard Keynes.
上世纪30年代 哈耶克与凯恩斯的大辩论 The grand dispute between Keynes and Hayek in the 1930s
在今天仍有重大意义 - 它在网络上引起了轰动 seems so relevant to us today - it's become an internet sensation.
凯恩斯先生 哇 太荣幸了 Lord Keynes, wow, it's, it... it's such an honour.
确实 先生 请进 Indeed, sir. Please, just go.
他们之间思想交锋的超现实再现 This surreal reinvention of their battle of ideas
被在线观看了将近200万人次 has been watched nearly two million times online.
哈耶克? Hay-ek?
不 高人 就像引发爆炸性思考的高人 No, High-ek, like um, high explosives.
哈耶克的对手 凯恩斯是一个重量级的思想家 Hayek's opponent, Keynes, was a heavyweight thinker.
经济学上看上去有永不停歇的新势力 The seemingly unstoppable new force in economics.
他们的争论有点像大卫与歌利亚 The clash felt a bit like David and Goliath.
凯恩斯聪明 成就显赫 Keynes had two brains.
他的存在 It was said of him that he caused more inferiority complexes
让同龄人感到瑜亮之卑 with justification than anyone else in his generation.
哈耶克还寂寂无闻 他比凯恩斯年轻16岁 Hayek was not known. He was 16 years younger than Keynes.
他们初次见面的时候就发生了争论 They fell out with each other on first meeting
且争论终其一生都没有停止过 and continued to fight for the rest of their lives.
随着危机加深 赌注已经不能再高 As the Depression deepened the stakes could not have been higher.
哈耶克开始给出一些令人不安的警示 Hayek began with some awkward jabs.
在后面的黑板上画一些非常复杂的图表 Drawing in rather confused diagrams on a blackboard behind him,
他称其为波动 he described what he called "fluctuations",
反映了市场每天的变化过程 which were how the market changed from day to day over time,
以及 一旦市场被干扰 and how, if you started interfering with it,
事情会如何迅速恶化 how things would go wrong pretty quickly.
由此开始了宏伟的经济学辩论 The big economic argument that started here
从1931年的这个房间 一致持续至今 in this room in 1931 is still going on today.
如果一个经济体陷入困境 If an economy gets into trouble,
政府是否应该插手干涉? should the government step in and try and fix it?
凯恩斯说是 哈耶克站在那儿说不是 Keynes was saying yes. Hayek stood up there and said no.
这个问题一度如此简单 For once, it really was that simple.
对凯恩斯来说 这是一个道德问题 For Keynes it was a moral problem.
事实是 失业者 The fact was there were people unemployed
理应找回工作 and therefore they should be put back to work,
至于怎么找回 并不重要 and it didn't really matter how you did it.
对哈耶克来说 则是一件完全不同的事情 For Hayek, it was a different thing.
哈耶克认为我们对经济的理解不够 Hayek concluded that we really didn't know enough about economics
以至于像凯恩斯等人的任何尝试 and that any attempt by people like Keynes
干涉经济 to start fooling around with it
将只会导致非预期的结果 would only end up with unintended consequences,
而哈耶克认为这些非预期的结果 and those unintended consequences, according to Hayek,
将比问题本身更糟糕 could be even worse than the problems that were solved.
哈耶克和凯恩斯之间的巨大差异 The bitter argument between Hayek and Keynes embodied a fault line
为经济学分出的流派至今仍存在 in economics that exists to this day.
这是历史上最伟大的 It's one of the great academic disputes in the history
学术辩论之一 of intellectual thought.
为今天的左翼和右翼之间的差异定下了基调 It set the tone for the difference between left and right today,
也为那些想干预经济的人 between those who want to intervene in the economy,
和那些更愿意让经济自行发展的人之间的差异定下了基调 and those who would prefer to leave the economy alone.
这是20世纪最重要的学术斗争之一 It was one of the most important intellectual battles
当时看来谁获胜是显而易见的 of the 20th Century, and at the time it was pretty clear who won...
凯恩斯 Keynes.
1933年 大衰退没有任何结束的征兆 In 1933, as the Depression showed no sign of ending,
罗斯福总统策划了一个巨大的公共支出计划 President Roosevelt instigated a massive public spending programme
看上去非常凯恩斯主义 that looked very Keynesian.
在罗斯福新政下 美国各类基础设施被修建 Under the New Deal, all kinds of new infrastructure was built
例如纽约中心的这条高架铁路 across America, like this elevated railway in the heart of New York.
罗斯福新政载入史册是因为这是史上第一次 The New Deal's gone down in history as the first time a country
正式试图通过政府支出将经济带出困境 seriously tried to spend its way out of recession,
哈耶克当时就认为这是错的 but even at the time, Hayek thought that was a mistake.
他认为经济所需要的是一个清理期间 He thought what the economy needed was a period of cleansing.
淘汰繁荣时期的错误投资 Get past all that bad investment from the boom,
摆脱孱弱的企业 留下最健康的 get rid of all the weak businesses, let the fittest survive.
哈耶克认为罗斯福新政是一种人工兴奋剂 Hayek saw the New Deal as an artificial stimulant
妨碍了市场原本具有的系统自愈能力 preventing the market naturally healing its damaged ecosystem.
政府与其干预市场不如退出 Rather than stepping in, government should step back
让经济衰退自行其道 and let the recession do its job.
哈耶克认为衰退才是回归正常 Hayek thought that the recession was the return to normalcy.
繁荣是由于糟糕的政策导致 一旦衰退开始 That the boom was caused by bad policy, but once the recession
经济开始回归常态 started that was the return of the economy to normalcy.
它将导致部分项目的清算 It would involve liquidation of certain projects
这些项目已经启动却无法持续 that had been starting that were not sustainable.
但深陷资本主义有史以来最严重危机之中 But in the depths of capitalism's worst ever crisis,
政治家们无法理解哈耶克的警世危言 Hayek's tough message was too much for most politicians to swallow.
他被忽视了 He was ignored.
一个世纪中反反复复 ? Going back and forth for a century
我希望引导市场运行 ? I want to steer markets
我希望市场自由运行 ? I want them set free
繁荣和衰退交替始终存在 令人惧怕 ? There's a boom and bust cycle and good reason to fear it
谴责低利率 ? Blame low interest rates
不 是野兽精神 ? No, it's the animal spirits... ?
凯恩斯的理论在修辞学上是一个充满希望的理论 Keynes' message rhetorically is a hopeful message
在某种意义上 它说的是我们 in the sense that it says "we",
而这个我们指的是政府 and that "we" being the government,
能够积极主动的处理问题 can do something proactive about this.
哈耶克的理论没有提供类似的政策 The Hayekian view doesn't offer that sort of policy,
也没有提供选项 doesn't offer that option.
2008年金融危机来袭 政治家们无以应对 When the financial crisis hit in 2008 policymakers were blindsided.
莱曼兄弟 After Lehman Brothers...
世界上最著名的投行之一破产后 one of the world's most famous investment banks - went down,
美国政府迅速转向凯恩斯 the American government swiftly turned to Keynes
试图阻止危机蔓延 to try to stop the damage spreading.
金融系统的崩溃威胁到了这里的人们 The meltdown in the financial system terrified the people in there.
政府开始实施规模巨大的干预 They started intervening on an epic scale
花费数千亿美元提振银行 spending hundreds of billions of dollars propping up banks,
保险公司 甚至美国的大型汽车制造商 insurance companies, even America's biggest car firms
以防止他们走向衰退 to stop them going bust.
不要忘了是一个共和党的信奉自由市场的总统 Remember that started under a Republican free market president...
乔治·布什开始该政策 然后奥巴马延续该政策 George Bush, and then carried on under President Obama.
很显然 他们都不希望看到 Apparently, neither of them wanted to see the deep cleansing
哈耶克所提倡的经济彻底清理 of the economy that Hayek would have recommended.
这不是说很高兴我们需要一场衰退 It's not like I'm glad that we need a recession.
而是很不幸我们需要这场衰退 It's unfortunate that we need this recession.
如果政府没有干预经济 Had the government not interfered in the economy,
就如同我主张的一样 in ways that I would have been against,
我们本可以不经历这场虚假繁荣 we never would have had this phony boom.
也就是说 如果我们没有吸毒 In other words, if we didn't take drugs,
我们就可以不用经历这场戒毒 we wouldn't need to go through the withdrawal.
2008年 纵观全球 In that period in 2008, right across the world,
人们自危 这会导致一个 people were scared stiff that this was going to go from a recession
直线式的衰退 而当今世界是如此的一体化以至于 into a downright depression, and the world is so global now
衰退将很轻易蔓延至全球 these things could easily have spread,
这是人们担心的原因 你知道 that's why people thought, you know,
不同的国家 我们必须做任何事情阻止其发生 "Different countries, we've got to do whatever it takes to stop that."
如今 英国和美国的央行 Today, central banks in Britain and America
正在追求另一个凯恩斯主义目标 are pursuing another Keynesian idea...
保持低利率 鼓励借款 keeping interest rates low, encouraging borrowing
从而刺激经济活动 to stimulate economic activity.
纵观奥地利的历史 哈耶克认为 But if you follow the Austrian, Hayek view it's all worse
这不仅无意义而且错误 因为这种市场干预 than pointless, because this intervention in the market
为更大的灾难创造了条件 is setting the stage for an even greater disaster.
你怎么看待哈耶克和 What do you think is the relevance of Hayek
美联储如今所作所为的关系? to what the Fed's doing now?
先往火里泼煤油 然后试图熄灭它 Pouring kerosene on the fire and trying to put it out.
他们试图用更多的贷款解决贷款过量的问题 They're trying to stop the problem of excessive credit with more credit.
但是他们所做的不过是重新开始另一个问题 But all that it does is re-start the problems again
创造一个新的泡沫 and you create a new bubble.
泡沫现在还存在于美元估值和债券市场 And the bubble now is in the value of the dollar and the bond market.
它是无法持续的 And it's unsustainable.
哈耶克与凯恩斯的争论 Hayek's argument with Keynes
在于如何使资本主义更好的运行 was all about how best to make capitalism work.
但30年代 哈耶克被卷入了一个更大的战争 But as the '30s moved on Hayek was drawn into a far greater battle.
资本主义是否是组织社会的正确方法 Whether capitalism was even the right way to organise society
抑或像共产主义和法西斯主义的新意识形态那样 or if the new ideologies of Communism and Fascism,
诉诸中央计划经济来解决问题 with their centrally-planned systems held the answer.
他认为两者都是完全错误的 He was convinced both were utterly wrong.
哈耶克说 人类几乎不可能了解 Hayek said, "Not merely can human beings struggle to understand
如何应对不确定性 "how to cope with uncertainty,
世界过于复杂 "but the world is just too complex for them to cope
如果想要理解全部的话 "with understanding all of it."
市场体制传递了如此多的信息 并有效运行 A market system conveys so much information that makes it feasible.
在无法理解经济复杂性的重压之下 Central planning will fail under the weight of the impossibility
计划经济定将失败 of understanding the complexity of the economy.
这是哈耶克最重要的观点 That was Hayek's most important insight,
如果人们听进去了 and if people had listened to that they would never have been
就根本用不着担心来自共产主义的威胁 so worried about the threat from communism as they were,
因为计划经济因其自身矛盾必然会失败 because central planning failed under the weight of its own inconsistency.
哈耶克看到了计划经济的成本 Hayek had seen the economic costs of central planning
但是二战使他将精力集中在了政治领域 but World War Two made him focus on the political implications.
当然 他不希望同盟国失败 Of course, he didn't want the Allies to lose the war,
但是观察到战争因素正在改变经济 but seeing how the war effort was changing the economy
他担心一旦同盟国获胜 结果会怎样 made him worry about what would happen if they won.
他不希望击败纳粹后却发现 He didn't want to defeat the Nazis and then find
我们将自由拱手交给了一群官僚 we'd handed our freedom to an army of bureaucrats instead.
当二战开始 When the Second World War began,
英国政府接管了经济 the British government took control of the economy
利用其威力为战争服务 to harness its power for the war effort.
哈耶克担心他们将不会让经济重返自由 Hayek worried they would never let go.
社会上 尤以是社会主义者有极大的热情 There was a lot of enthusiasm, especially among socialists,
要在二战结束后仍执行计划经济 to continue the planning that had taken place during World War Two
如同战时所执行的一样 after the war was over.
一个政府巡查员在检查 'A government inspector checks
测量值是90英寸 'that the measurements are 90 inches long.'
当财政部的工作人员决定 As men from the ministry dictated how many blankets
每个毛毯生产商生产多少毛毯 哈耶克开始著书 each blanket factory produced, Hayek began writing a book
批评政府对经济的控制 attacking the government's control of the economy.
这本书帮助改变了20世纪的进程 It would help change the course of the 20th century
引发了一场延续至今的政治斗争 and start a political battle that runs to this day.
这是我公公手稿的复印件 And there is a handwritten copy
就写一个本普通的孩童练习本上 by my father-in-law, in an ordinary child's exercise book,
《通往奴役之路》 of the Road to Serfdom.
他写道 这是第三或第四稿 He has written on it - "This is about the third or fourth draft
之前更长的打印稿由于错误已经被毁 "from a longer typescript later destroyed by mistake."
所以这是幸存的通往奴役之路的手稿 And so that is the draft that survived of the Road to Serfdom.
在书中 哈耶克提出了一个道德议题 In The Road to Serfdom, Hayek makes a moral argument
政府试图控制经济 that government attempts to control the economy
最终将导致其国民被奴役 ultimately enslave its people.
当我们赋予国家越来越多权力时 When we give more and more power to the state,
将逐渐产生腐败 首先是腐蚀经济自由 gradually there is an erosion of first, economic freedom,
然后最终腐蚀政治自由 and then ultimately, political freedom.
政治自由的腐蚀将导致人们需要 That erosion of political freedom then leads people to demand
一个强大的独裁者解决所有问题 a strong man, a dictator to sort everything out,
确保火车准点 以及解决其他所有问题 make the trains run on time and everything else,
这会不可避免的导致极权主义 and that this leads inexorably down the road to totalitarianism.
书中写道 献给所有党派的社会主义者 It says, "To the socialists of all parties."
他喜欢这个 他对提出这个感到很愉悦 He loved it. He was so amused when he thought it up.
《通往奴役之路》1944年在英国悄无声息的出版 The Road to Serfdom was published in Britain in 1944 with little fanfare.
但是大西洋彼岸 则完全不同 But across the Atlantic, things were very different.
1945年4月 哈耶克同意在美国的大学中 In April 1945 Hayek agreed to give a short lecture tour
举办一个简短的演讲旅行 of American universities.
在到达之前 他的书已经获得了 Before he arrived, his book got the kind of publicity
金钱都买不到的宣传 that money can't buy.
读者文摘给予哈耶克头版的地位以及一篇振奋人心的介绍 Reader's Digest gave Hayek top billing and a rousing introduction,
《通往奴役之路》的某些书评 quoting from some of the reviews that the Road to Serfdom had got.
称其为"我们时代最重要的书籍" Calling it "One of the most important books of our generation."
哈耶克教授通过强大且严谨的逻辑 "Professor Hayek with great power and rigour of reasoning
向美国人和英国人发出了严峻的警告 "sounds a grim warning to Americans and Britons who look
他们依靠政府提供的出路 "to the government to provide the way out
解决自身所有的经济困境 "of all our economic difficulties."
这本书理应赢得"最广泛的读者" And it should have "the widest possible audience".
而这正是本书所得到的 And that's exactly what the book got.
读者文摘有超过800万的订阅者 Reader's Digest had more than 8 million subscribers.
哈耶克关于庞大政府危险性的警告 Hayek's warning about the dangers of big government
引起了许多美国民众的共鸣 struck a chord with many Americans.
《通往奴役之路》很符合 The Road to Serfdom really fitted in with the notions
美国的个人主义观念 of American individualism and the sense that anybody
即任何人都能通过勤奋工作成为百万富翁 could become a millionaire if only they were to work hard enough,
也契合美国从其建国伊始国父们就有的担忧 and an anxiety which came right from the founding fathers about whether
担心联邦政府是否应从各州获取过多的权力 the federal government should take too much power from the states.
二战后 随着福利国家的出现 After the war the size and reach of government
在整个西方世界 政府的规模和触角都有增长 did grow across the Western world with the rise of the welfare state.
在英国 许多产业甚至国有化了 In Britain much of the economy was even nationalised...
被政府接管 taken over by the state.
阅读哈耶克给出了一种解释 Reading Hayek gave a kind of explanation of why
为什么我们所犯的错误还在延续 what had gone wrong was going wrong.
哈耶克提出了另一番愿景 在我看来是非常有说服力的 Hayek gave an alternative vision which seemed to me to be very cogent.
一言以蔽之 即法制范围内的自由 What it boiled down to was freedom within the rule of law.
他想说的 What he was read to say
事实上 至上世纪60年代他才表露出 and actually himself moved to say by the 1960s,
社会福利制度会把 was that moving to a social welfare society would eat away
一个健康的民主社会坐吃山空 at the health of democracy.
我认为这是他的一个失误预测 严重失误 I think it's one of his failed predictions, badly failed,
尽管这仍是他思想中一个非常有影响力的论点 even though it remains an influential part of his thinking now
仍有大量自由主义者追随 with many followers in the libertarian mode.
今天 通往奴役之路回来了 Today, the Road to Serfdom is back.
这书就像全盛时期的迈克·泰森 'This book was like Mike Tyson in his prime.
对西欧和美国的社会主义者给了重重一击 'Right hook to Socialism in Western Europe and in the United States.
但其影响力并没有... 'But the influence didn't...'
2010年格兰贝克的福克斯新闻播出后 After Glenn Beck's Fox News broadcast in 2010,
通往奴役之路在美国亚马逊图书排行榜上攀升至第一 The Road to Serfdom shot to number one on Amazon in America.
罗纳德·里根 'Ronald Regan...'
试想，那些会成为格兰贝克节目听众的人 If you think about the people that would have been
有时会被定义为茶党 part of Glenn Beck's audience, sometimes defined as the Tea Party.
看看我们所做的 'Look at what we're doing!
我们现在有国有汽车公司 国有银行 'We now have a government car company, government banks
哈耶克指出这条路只可能走向一个终点 'and Hayek demonstrates this road leads to one destination.'
对政府的嘲讽蔓延很广 There is cynicism about government and it's quite widespread,
还有许多愤怒 there's a lot of anger.
无疑会导致... That certainly would feed into...
刚好 这又有一个大谈特谈大政府危害的人 Well, here's a guy who talked about the dangers of big government.
事实上 哈耶克赞同政府 In fact, Hayek was in favour of governments
提供一定程度的安全网络 providing some kind of safety net.
但是 他的现代追随者不愿意深究这个观点 But his modern supporters don't like to dwell on that.
现在比他写书的时候更盛行社会主义 Well, we have a lot more socialism now than when he wrote it.
由于长时间以来社会主义悄然而缓慢地体现于经济中 As socialism creeps in the economy slowly over time,
许多人才没有注意到它 a lot of people don't notice it.
而最终 你将发现你不是在通往奴役的路上 And eventually, you know, you're not on the road to serfdom,
你已经被奴役了 you've arrived at serfdom.
想想维多利亚时期的英国 Think about Victorian Britain.
一个无可争议的自由市场 That was certainly a very free market,
政府干预少之又少 there was a minimum government intervention.
我们是否认为英国的普通市民 Do we think that the average citizen of England
在1870年感受到了更大的个人自由呢? in 1870 felt a great deal of personal freedom?
我认为 大量的奴性和阶级屈从 I think there was a great deal of servility and class deference
导致这样的事实 coming out of the fact that the lives of the poor
穷人完全没有安全感 只有不断讨好富人 were incredibly insecure and only by constantly flattering their betters
才能在一定程度上保证生存 could they have any reasonable assurance of survival.
所以不 我认为更多的自由和尊严 So no, I think there's more freedom and dignity
存在于一个强度适当的福利社会 in a moderately strong welfare state than there is
而不是哈耶克幻想中的自由市场天堂 in the Hayekian paradise of free markets.
尽管通往奴役之路大获成功 Despite the success of The Road to Serfdom,
上世纪五六十年代 哈耶克认为自己被弃之于政治荒原 in the 1950s and '60s Hayek found himself in the political wilderness.
西方政府热切拥抱凯恩斯主义 Governments across the Western world were enthusiastically embracing
在1930年代的黑暗日子中 the ideas of Hayek's nemesis from the dark days of the 1930s...
凯恩斯是哈耶克无可避免的魔咒 John Maynard Keynes.
凯恩斯主义成为资本主义新的正统 It became the new capitalist orthodoxy that governments
政府藉此成功管控经济 could successfully manage their economies.
历史潮流背弃了哈耶克 The tide of history had turned against Hayek.
他非常抑郁 He got very depressed.
人们不再听他的演讲 不再看他的书籍 People weren't listening to him, they weren't reading his books.
英国看上去转向左翼 England seemed to be going left-wing.
他选择成为英国公民 他发现 He'd chosen to be British and he looked, from his views
按照他的经济学观点 一切都错了 of an economist, and he could see everything going the wrong way.
1974年 哈耶克意外接到了一个电话 Then in 1974, Esca Hayek got a phone call out of the blue.
打电话的人正是40年前邀请他去伦敦经济学院演讲 It was the man who had invited Hayek to the LSE 40 years earlier
与凯恩斯作对的那位 to do battle with Keynes.
莱纳·罗宾斯打电话给我然后问 "你坐稳了么?" It was Lionel Robbins who rang me and said, "Are you sitting down?"
我说 "是的" I said, "Yes."
他说 "他被授予 And he said, "Well, he's been awarded
诺贝尔经济学奖" "a Nobel Prize for economics."
这就像被授予了骑士爵位 That was like being given a knighthood of the world.
那是诺贝尔奖的颁奖辞 That's the Nobel citation.
斯德哥尔摩 1974年12月10日 Stockholm the 10th of December 1974,
诺贝尔奖被授予哈耶克 Alfred Nobel given to Friedrich von Hayek.
他的生活重新开始了 His life started off completely again.
他一直很抑郁 正准备退休 He'd been depressed, he was coming up to retirement
突然一切可以重新开始了 这是一个新生 and suddenly everything started, it was a new life.
绝对的 一切又重新开始了 Absolutely... everything took off for him.
当关于哈耶克的一切重新开始时 While everything began taking off for Hayek,
英国陷入了经济下滑 Britain was sinking into economic decline.
罢工成为无法改变的事实 Strikes had become a fact of life.
战后凯恩斯主义共识已经破裂 The post-war Keynesian consensus was crumbling.
哈耶克获奖后几个月 A few months after Hayek won the Nobel Prize,
保守党选举了一个新领袖 the Conservative Party turned to a new leader.
撒切尔夫人的上台使得哈耶克 The rise of Margaret Thatcher brought Hayek
首次站到了主流政治舞台 into the political mainstream for the first time.
撒切尔夫人一直 Margaret Thatcher would, from time to time,
携带将一些写有引言的小纸条 pull little bits of paper with quotations on them
放在手袋中 哈耶克就是被引用的其中一位 out of her handbag and Hayek would be one of them.
哈耶克在20世纪的绝大部分时间都是政治的旁观者 Hayek had spent most of the 20th century as a political outsider.
现在他得到了撒切尔夫人的倾听 Now he had the ear of the woman
她即将出任英国首相 who would be Britain's next Prime Minister.
我认为这是一个巨大的错误 I think it would be a great mistake
认为撒切尔夫人像学生一样学习哈耶克 to think of her as studying Hayek like a student would.
她更像是从哈耶克哪儿获得灵感 It's more trying to get inspiration from Hayek and casting around,
带着疑问遍览伟人思想 ransacking the minds of great men,
这个伟人正是当时最杰出的人物之一 of whom he was one of the most prominent,
所以在某种程度上她淘到了金子 so that she could somehow get the gold.
1979年 撒切尔夫人当选首相 In 1979 Margaret Thatcher was swept to power,
决定构建一个新英国 determined to build a new Britain.
这是方向上的重大变革 It was a bold change of direction
从而创建了我们今天生活的世界 that really did create the world we live in today.
我们经历了一个政治方向上的重大转变 We did institute a radical change of policy direction,
从未真正被逆转 which has not really been reversed.
它可能限于泥淖 但从未被逆转 It may have been muddied, but it hasn't been reversed.
这和哈耶克在上世纪40年代发表的观点是一致的 It does chime in with Hayek right back in the 1940s
说我们现在所走的路 saying that the path we're on at the moment
是通向奴役的路 我们需要走出一条不同的路 is the road to serfdom, and we need to tread a very different path.
用当时的语言 In the language of the time
撒切尔夫人开始淡化国家的作用 Mrs Thatcher began rolling back the state.
国有企业被私有化 Government-owned industries were privatised.
公共支出和税收都在缩减 Public spending and taxes were cut.
国家对市场的控制 对价格 工资 股利 汇率的控制 There was a bonfire of state controls on the market...
都面临改革 on prices, wages, dividends and foreign exchange.
英国开始转向哈耶克的道路 Britain was moving Hayek's way.
非常肯定的是 我们跟哈耶克不谋而合 We were certainly very much on the same wavelength.
我们没有忙于查阅他的作品 找出我们应该做什么 We were not busy thumbing his works to find out what we should do,
因为其作品并不是为政府写的手册 it was not a handbook for government,
而是一个普遍的思想 but it was the same general idea.
当今世界没有什么比 Nowhere did today's world emerge more clearly
保守党和工会的斗争更明显了 than in the Conservative's battle with the trades' unions.
撒切尔夫人希望 Margaret Thatcher wanted to put a stop
停止日益增长的工会权力 to what she saw as rampant union power.
但是她面临一个困境 But she faced a dilemma...
如何在不引起全体人民反感的情况下做这些? "How do you do that without alienating the entire population?"
哈耶克的哲学帮助她形成了答案 Hayek's philosophy helped her formulate her answer.
她希望用自由来包装她的理念 She wanted to frame the argument in terms of liberty.
她不愿意说 "工人是可怕的 让我们镇压他们吧" She didn't want to say, "The workers are all dreadful, let's squash them."
她希望说 "工人被他们自己的领导摆平了" She wanted to say, "The workers are being squashed by their leaders."
这跟哈耶克的自由观是完全契合的 This very much fed into Hayek, and the idea of liberty
即 你在捍卫劳资关系的同时 was, you were defending your country here
也在捍卫这个国家 as well as the state of labour relations.
哈耶克和撒切尔夫人有许多共同点 Hayek and Margaret Thatcher agreed on a lot.
但是也有关键的不同 But there was one crucial difference between them.
哈耶克认为让市场自由可以阻止 Whereas Hayek thought you freed the market to prevent power
权力集中在政治家的手中 getting too concentrated in the hands of politicians,
撒切尔夫人认为可以采用自由市场政策 Thatcher thought you could have free market policies
同时保持中央的一部分权力 and still keep a lot of power at the centre.
一边是哈耶克理想 一边是自由市场政治家基于本能的控制欲 That tension between Hayek's ideal and the controlling instinct
这中间的鸿沟从未真正消除过 of even free market politicians never really went away.
撒切尔夫人有时会忽略 Where she, I think, missed out sometimes was understanding
对于机构以及 the importance of institutions
社会反抗力量重要性的理解 and of countervailing power in a society.
比如哈耶克就会非常了解 Hayek, for example, was quite understanding about the role
地方权威 地方市政 of local authorities and local municipalities
地方权力中心所扮演的角色，这正是撒切尔夫人所欠缺的 and local power centres in a way which I don't think Margaret was.
哈耶克的政治影响力在1986年达到顶峰 Hayek's political influence reached its height in 1986
当时撒切尔夫人的政府去除了很多 when Mrs Thatcher's government swept away much of the regulation
曾经约束过伦敦的规章制度 that had constrained the City of London.
最重大的举措是给予金融市场以自由 The Big Bang set the financial markets free,
这使得今天发展出巨大的 ushering in today's vast
相互关联的全球金融市场 interconnected global financial system.
但是这不是哈耶克真正所期望的自由市场 But it wasn't really the free market that Hayek wanted.
哈耶克的追随者说 脱胎于八九十年代的 Hayek's followers would say the deregulated financial system
对金融系统的解禁 that came out of the '80s and '90s played a big role
在金融危机中起到了重要作用 因为市场只是半自由 in the financial crisis because it was only ever half free.
扭曲市场自由的是 所有这些金融机构 It was distorted by an implicit promise
背后隐藏的一个隐形承诺 to all these financial institutions
出了事 政府会给予救助 that if things went wrong the government would come to the rescue.
自上世纪80年代西方开始盛行这样的资本主义 In the kind of capitalism we've had in the West since the 1980s,
触发了最近这次危机的金融机构 the financial institutions that triggered the recent crash
似乎可以不受任何约束 除了破产 were free to do anything, it seems, except fail.
这就是"大到不能倒" It was the "Too big to fail problem".
他们知道这是一个问题 They knew that it was a question of,
正面我赢 反面纳税人输 "Heads I win, tails the tax payer loses."
如果这是场赌局 And if that is the bet,
你参与进来 赌注下得越来越大 you take the bet and you take it on a bigger and bigger scale.
他们很清楚 如果他们赌错了 So they knew pretty well that if they got the gamble wrong
政府不会眼瞅着他们破产 他们会接管的 governments couldn't allow them to fail, they'd have to be bailed out.
这就是错误所在 也是必须被终止的 That is what is wrong and that is what has to be stopped.
我们当然发现了 We certainly have discovered, after the fact
政府不可能允许银行破产 that banks are not allowed to fail.
但这是否就是过度贷款的主要原因呢? Was that actually a significant factor in the over-lending?
我认为证据不足 I don't think there's much evidence of that.
现在很明显 大型银行不可能破产 Now the fact that big banks clearly will not be allowed to fail
这的确扭曲了我们的系统 and that is distorting our system.
但我认为 这不是危机的主要原因 But I don't think that's the story of the crisis.
我认为 危机的原因更在于 I think that the crisis was one more about just a general failure
在理解风险方面存在一种普遍的错误 to understand the risks.
毫无疑问 近30年来 各国政治家 There's no doubt that in the last 30 years politicians of all stripes
让市场对社会的影响越来越大 have let market forces influence more and more parts of society.
但是 他们和哈耶克最有革命性的观点划清了界限 But they have drawn the line at Hayek's most revolutionary idea
-- 将货币本身推向市场 of turning money itself over to the market.
想象一个世界 不止一种法定的货币流通 Imagine a world where we didn't have just one legal currency circulating
在经济中 不止英格兰银行印发货币 in the economy, issued by the Bank of England, but dozens of them.
任何人 一个公司 银行或私人都可以印发 Anyone - a company, a bank, a private individual could set up
并拥有英镑的各种版本且自由竞争 their own version of the pound and they would be free to compete.
市场决定货币的价值 The market would determine how much they were worth.
哈耶克知道 哪怕对他自己来说 这都是一个疯狂的建议 Hayek knew it was a crazy sounding suggestion, even for him.
但这终将阻止政府 But it would finally stop governments
滥用货币的权力 abusing the power of money.
在美国 有一个人试图这么做 In America one man has been trying to do just that.
他接受了哈耶克革命性的的观点并将其转化为现实 He's taken Hayek's most explosive idea and turned it in to a reality.
伯纳德·冯·诺特豪斯自称为货币构建师 Bernard von Nothaus calls himself a monetary architect.
美国官方称其为国内恐怖分子 The American authorities call him a domestic terrorist.
从某种意义上说 诺特豪斯的遭遇说明了 For some, what's happened to von Nothaus shows just how seriously
政府是何等重视 对其垄断货币发行所发起的任何挑战 governments take any challenge to their monopoly over money.
经济学是枯燥和无聊的 Economics is dry and boring.
但是钱是刺激的 钱的魅力十足 But money is exciting! Money is sexy.
你知道 钱是生命力 它关乎人类 关乎梦想 You know, money's got pizzazz, it's about people and about dreams,
关乎我们的行为 about what we do, you know?
钱是如此美妙 Money is fantastic!
这才是我和哈耶克之间真正的联系 And that's what I really connected with in terms of von Hayek.
因为他在这里说了人们可以控制 Because what he said in here was about people taking control
和印发他们自己的货币 and people issuing their own money.
诺特豪斯创造了他自己的货币 Von Nothaus created his own currency...
一个称为自由美元的银质硬币 任何人都可以购买 a silver coin called the Liberty Dollar which anyone could buy.
许多人已经购买了 And many have.
感谢他 价值5千万的硬币 Thanks to him, coins worth anything up to 50 million
已经投入到美国的经济中 have now been sent out in to the US economy.
哈耶克是激发这一灵感的源泉 And Hayek was a big inspiration.
他说问题在于政府货币 He says the problem is government money.
总是政府的货币 It's always been government money.
因为他们滥用其权力 可以从空气中赚钱 Because they abuse their power. They make money out of thin air.
他说我们应该废除中央银行 So he says what we should do is to abolish the central bank.
关闭美联储 这注意太棒了 The end of the Federal Reserve, that was fantastic!
自上世纪20年代 本杰明斯·特朗经营新的美联储开始 Ever since Benjamin Strong was running the New York Federal Reserve
央行就开始运用其 in the 1920s, central banks have used their control
对货币供应量的控制 试图管理经济的上升和下降 over the supply of money to try to manage the economy's ups and downs.
但是正如我们所见的 对哈耶克和其追随者来说 But as we've seen, to Hayek and his fans,
央行是许多资本主义问题的诱因 central banks are the cause of many of capitalisms problems,
而不是解决方案 not the solution.
我不会宣称在一天或者短期内关闭美联储 And I don't argue for closing the Fed down in one day either.
我希望审计美联储 我希望竞争 I want to audit the Fed and I want competition,
即哈耶克关于竞争和货币的观点 Hayek's ideas of competition and money,
看谁最终谁能赢得竞争 and see who can win this argument.
但是他们要求垄断的权力 But for them to claim monopoly powers
禁止我们实施私人市场经济 and prevent us from practising private market economics
才是我们面临的真正问题 is the real problem that we have.
这很有乌托邦的意味 好比黄金年代 A lot of this is this Utopian vision, the golden age
当时 人还是人 货币还是自由的 when men were men and currency was free.
美国在很长有一段时间内 The United States had a long period of no government monopoly
政府没有对货币进行垄断 on currency.
整个系统对银行没有监管 We had the whole system of unregulated banks
允许它们印发竞争性的货币 issuing competing currencies.
但那个系统极易引发金融危机 That system was heavily prone to financial crises.
所以"竞争就是答案"这一理念 So the idea again that competition is the answer
是被历史唾弃的 is flying in the face of history.
也许这是事实 但是政府努力控制市场 Perhaps, but the history of government efforts
的历史也同样不完美 to control the market hasn't been so pretty either.
对哈耶克来说 真正的乌托邦是相信央行 For Hayek, what was really utopian was the belief that central banks,
或类似的人物能够和 or anyone else for that matter, could ever be a match
复杂的现代经济进行比赛 for the dizzying complexity of our modern economy.
哈耶克会说 他们没有能力做这些 他们必须停止尝试 Hayek would say since they can't do it they should just stop trying.
我们应该停止... We should stop having...
停止利用任何货币政策进行干预 Well, stop having any intervention in monetary policy,
如果走极端的话就是撤销央行 or stop having central banks if you go to the extreme.
我认为这是一个梦想 Well, that's dreaming, I think.
冯诺特豪斯试图与美联储竞争 Von Nothaus's attempt to compete with the Federal Reserve
最终导致了美国政府的关注 eventually drew the attention of the American authorities.
2007年 FBI介入 In 2007, the FBI moved in.
我认为 他们开始认为我是一个威胁而不是解决方案 I think they begin to perceive us as a threat instead of a solution.
自由美元背后的构建师 'The architect behind the Liberty Dollar
正在讨论美国政府 'is talking about the US government
为什么当局这个月早些时候查封了他设在埃文斯维尔的总部 'and why agents raided his Evansville headquarters earlier this month.'
冯诺特豪斯被控扰乱美国货币 Von Nothaus was charged with counterfeiting US currency.
2011年在北卡罗来纳法庭上作辩护时 Giving evidence in this courthouse in North Carolina in 2011
他提到哈耶克 he talked about Hayek.
哈耶克的理论可以为我们辩护 Well, he was relevant to my defence.
这不是我自己想出来的轻率观点 This wasn't some harebrained idea that I had thought up myself.
哈耶克是一个众所周知的诺贝尔获奖者 I pointed out that here was a well-known Nobel laureate
他说的正是我现在所做的 who had talked about exactly what I had done.
伯纳德·冯·诺特豪斯被判有罪 Bernard von Nothaus was found guilty
面临25年的监禁 and now faces up to 25 years in prison.
我认为这是他值得自豪的事件之一 And I think this was the one he was most proud of,
伊丽莎白二世授予的荣誉勋爵头衔 "Companion of Honour, presented by Queen Elizabeth II,
白金汉宫 1984年 "Buckingham Palace, 1984."
当听到消息时 他震惊了 And he was absolutely thrilled when he got that.
致教授 博士 "To Professor, Doctor..."
在他生命的尽头 哈耶克获得世人的尊敬 Towards the end of his life, Hayek was feted by everyone.
他对自由市场的力量持无比之信念 He'd inspired politicians all over the world with his boundless belief
这激发了全球政治家的灵感 in the power of the free market.
这是加拉加斯的天主教大学 And that is Catholic University, Caracas.
上世纪80年代 真正实施政策的时候 When it came to their actual policies,
西方领袖们通常都转向另一位 Western leaders in the 1980s usually turned to a free market thinker
其观点更易于被接受的自由市场思想家 whose ideas they found more palatable.
米尔顿·弗里德曼的信念是政府可以 Milton Friedman's belief that governments could steer the economy
通过控制流通中货币供应量来监控经济 using their power over the supply of money in circulation
这个信条仍是各国政府执政的基石 is still a touchstone for governments everywhere.
在这种意义上 弗里德曼不像哈耶克 提供了政治家 In that sense, Friedman, unlike Hayek, did offer politicians
一条既拥护自由市场又坚持其控制权的道路 a way to champion the free market and hold on to the reins of power.
哈耶克的一生几乎贯穿了整个20世纪 Hayek's life spanned almost the entire 20th century,
这是一个科技进步前所未有的时代 an era of unprecedented scientific progress...
这是个人的一小步 'It's one small step for man,
却是人类的一大步 'one giant leap for mankind.'
也是经济灾难前所未有的年代 but also unprecedented economic disasters.
生活在这两者的阴影下 Living in the shadow of both,
哈耶克意识到 政治家错误地认为经济学是门科学 Hayek came to see the great crises of capitalism as the result
导致了资本主义的巨大危机 of politicians mistaking economics for a science.
这是一个着手解决所有重大问题的世纪 It was a century for taking on all the big questions.
经济学上的重大问题 And the big question for economists
就是如何驯服这个非凡的现代经济 was how they were going to tame this extraordinary modern economy.
凯恩斯和哈耶克都认为其面临不可置信的困难 Keynes and Hayek both thought that would be incredibly difficult,
甚至是危险 dangerous even.
但是凯恩斯的观点取悦了统治阶级 But Keynes flattered governments with the idea
他们可以按其意愿调整人类发展进程 that they could tilt the course of human history their way.
而哈耶克却说 他们甚至不应该尝试 It was Hayek who said they shouldn't even try.
我们可能发现宇宙的规则 We might uncover the laws of the universe...
我们不可能掌握人性的复杂 we were never going to master the complexities of human nature.
他称之为 伪知识 "Pretence of knowledge", he called it...
不懂装懂 pretending they know something that they don't know.
他们现在正这样做... Well, they've been doing it now...
我们现在有大量的经济学家 We've given the current crop of economists,
让我想想 多少年才发展至此 let's see, how many years would that be?
大约70年 完全失败 About 70-some years. Total failure.
许多电脑模型是完全误导 Many of the computer models have been desperately misleading
假装我们知道经济如何运行 in pretending that we understand how the economy works.
我们其实并不知道 我们不能预测经济 We don't. We can't forecast the economy.
我们可以尝试思考重大问题 But we can try to think about the big questions.
我们是否能走出大衰退? Can we get out of a deep slump?
我认为 和其他国家合作 And I think by working with other countries,
我们能逐步找到出路 we can gradually find our way out of this.
我们需要不同的观点交汇 So you need the different insights together,
但是哈耶克是一个 but Hayek is a...
哈耶克道德层面的主张是 避免傲慢自大的经济政策 The moral of Hayek is - avoid hubris in economic policy,
正如我们也应避免 自大傲慢的认为市场能 just as we should avoid hubris in thinking that markets
以其自身机制引领我们走向天堂 left to their own devices will lead us to Nirvana.
毫无疑问 哈耶克改变了世界历史的进程 There's no doubt Hayek helped change the course of world history,
决定性的将其从政府主导转向市场主导 shifting it decisively away from the state and towards the market.
唐宁街10号 首相 Oh! 10 Downing Street, the Prime Minister,
1989年5月3日 3rd of May 1989.
尊敬的哈耶克教授 非常荣幸 "Dear Professor Hayek, it is with the greatest pleasure
能够在您90大寿的时候 "that I send you my warm congratulations
送上我最热烈的祝贺 "on the occasion of your 90th birthday.
您的工作和思想给予我们的领导力和创造力 "The leadership and inspiration that your work and thinking gave us
绝对是至关重要的 我们感激不尽 "are absolutely crucial and we owe you a great debt."
请接受一切美好的祝愿 真诚的玛格丽特·撒切尔 "With every good wish, yours sincerely, Margaret Thatcher."
但是没有哪个政府敢于实施哈耶克的愿景 But no government has ever dared to implement Hayek's vision
无政府干预的完全自由市场 of a market free from state intervention.
当资本主义面临其1930年代以来最大的考验时 And when capitalism faced its biggest test since the 1930s,
政治家们涌向通过自身救市 politicians rushed to save the market from itself.
事实上 当今英国最大的争议在于 In fact, the biggest debate in Britain today is not about
不在于政府为了提振经济是否干涉过多 whether the government is doing too much to prop up the economy,
而在与是否干预不足 but whether it's doing enough.
如今 哈耶克的建议比以往看上去更难以实施 Today, Hayek's advice seems harder to take than ever.
全球经济仍在挣扎着 You've got the global economy still struggling to put
走出金融危机 如果它真的能走出的话 the financial crisis behind it, if it is behind it.
哈耶克将会说政府应该退出 And Hayek would say governments should just step back,
严谨的回顾历史 take a cool look at the historical record,
去除那些 dismantle most of the machinery
为引导经济而建的机构 they have constructed for guiding the economy,
深呼吸 然后放手 take a deep breath, and let go.
我不认为当今任何政府有意于此 I don't see any government today ready to do that.
我也不认为我会这样做 I don't think I ever will.
下一时段介绍卡尔马克思 对资本主义的所有问题 Next time, Karl Marx, the man who had the most radical solution of all
他给出了最激烈的解决方案 - 消灭资本主义 for the problems of capitalism - get rid of it.
公开大学制作了6集一分钟短片 The Open University has produced six one-minute animations to explain
解释跟我们生活息息相关的一些基本经济学概念 some of the key economic ideas that affect all of us.
如果你希望学习什么是看不见的手 If you want to learn how to spot an invisible hand
或其他经济学秘密 点击下列链接 or other secrets of economics, go to:
进入公开大学 And follow the link to the Open University.
Subtitles by MemoryOnSmells http://UKsubtitles.ru.